Benjamin Lai is an expert on modern Chinese military and the author of The Dragon’s Teeth. Here, he talks about why China continue to tolerate North Korea’s aggression.
On 11th February 2017, just as Donald Trump was entertaining Prime-Minister Abe of Japan with a round of golf, North Korea launched another ballistic missile as a means of protest as if to say, ‘don’t count me out yet.’ During the election, Trump and many conservative politicians have berated China for not doing more to reign in “Mad Kim”. In fact earlier in her Presidency, Park Geun-hye of South Korea launched a charm offensive on China, with the aim to persuade the Chinese to do more to contain North Korea.
Many people in the world, including President Park, don’t understand why China doesn’t do more to control the “Hermit Kingdom”. What does China hope to gain from a nuclear-capable North Korea? Well if you look at the history of Korea and China, the answer is obvious, why in 1950 an embryonic People’s Republic, armed with hand-me-down weapons was willing to take on the U.S.A. As far as China is concerned supporting North Korea in 2017 is the same as in 1950: to create a buffer zone, a moat against a belligerent America. This was the same reason why China supported North Vietnam throughout the Vietnam War. Therefore as long as the American garrison is in South Korea, China will prop up North Korea. At the same time it does not serve China’s interest to see North Korea collapse, as waves of refugees would descend on China, making the recent refugee crisis in Europe look like a storm in a teacup. But on the other hand, if North Korea is to become nuclear, Kim will not be a servile lap dog anymore but a growling Rottweiler. No one would hate this nightmare scenario more than China. So Beijing is playing a delicate game; on one hand trying to reign in Kim’s nuclear ambition, but on the other not to throttle him so much that North Korea implodes.
Despite the many layers of concentric circles, the operational North Korean missiles are only capable of reaching Russia and China. So far she has the bomb but lacks the delivery and guidance systems to make this an effective weapon.
From Pyongyang’s point of view, the survival of the country is only possible if she has a nuclear capacity, as her conventional weaponry is no match against the Americans. But when Bush Jr. declared North Korea as a member of the “Axis of Evil” in 2002, they had to protect themselves, especially seeing what had happened to Saddam and Gadhafi. In fact, Kim’s nuclear ambition was initiated by George W Bush after he cancelled Clinton’s “Bomb for electricity” programme. In a face-to-face meeting, Ex-President Jimmy Carter, Bill’s special envoy managed to persuade President Kim Il-Sung, President Kim Jong-un’s paternal granddad to stop making the bomb, and in exchange the U.S. would build two nuclear power stations to ensure the Koreans would have winter heating. In the meantime, the Americans would ship North Korea fuel during the power station construction. However, George W Bush was far more gung-ho, and egged on by conservatives advisors to put a stop to this deal by accusing the North Koreans of cheating on the 1994 agreement. In retaliation, the U.S. ceased oil shipment just as winter was coming. Upset, Pyongyang hit back by expelling international inspectors and resuming the reprocessing of plutonium. It was only much later that we found out that North Korea’s plutonium processors were unsealed only after the U.S. terminated the agreed heating oil shipment. The North Korean kept their side of the deal; it was the Americans who broke it.
To comprehensively derail any hope of true peace in Korea, Bush Jr. also halted South Korean President Kim Dae-jung’s Sunshine Policy that gave the first face to face meeting between the two Koreas in fifty years. By ensuring that North Korea remains hostile, the U.S. will continue to justify having troops in Korea.
While THAAD missile’s range is only 200 km, its forward radar system has a range of 2000 km, that covers most of China which upset the Chinese greatly. The South Korean Govt. was pressured to accept the deployment of THAAD against the wishes of many Koreans.
Fast-forward to 2017, tension in the Korean Peninsula is still high. To defend South Korea against Kim Jong Un’s missiles, the Americans recently moved ahead with the deployment of their THAAD anti-missile defence system despite strong protest from the Koreans. China was incensed with this move, not because of the threat from THAAD, but on its long-range radar that can penetrate into deepest China, rendering China vulnerable.
So, if we were to really solve the Korean issue once and for all, the security concerns to China and North Korea must be removed. Without US armed forces in Korea, the Chinese would have no need to support the North. If Kim can feel more secure, he will have less justification to own a nuke. Perhaps if the offer to disarm can be sweetened with some economic boost like what Jimmy Carter did, maybe we can begin to untie the 60 year old Korean Gordian knot.
For more about the China’s relationship with the United States and North Korea, check out Benjamin Lai’s latest book, The Dragon’s Teeth: The Chinese People’s Liberation Army—Its History, Traditions, and Air Sea and Land Capability in the 21st Century.
Published by Casemate Books, The Dragon’s Teeth is available from: http://www.casematepublishing.co.uk/index.php/the-dragon-039-s-teeth.html
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