Benjamin Lai is an expert on modern Chinese military and the author of The Dragon’s Teeth. Here, he explains why Taiwan’s phone call with Trump was so controversial.
Even before he took office, President-elect Donald Trump didn’t need to wait to be inaugurated to put his foot in— a 10 minute phone call was all it took to set off a diplomatic crisis with China. On Friday 2nd December, he took a phone call from the president of the Republic of China (more commonly known as Taiwan), Tsai Ing-wen. Trump’s advisers clearly did not warn him about the intricacies of modern international relations. Making silly diplomatic mistakes is common among many first time U.S. presidents, but none could outdo Trump by taking the honour of having diplomatic egg on his face before even taking office.
From subsequent revelations, it was Tsai who made the call on the pretext of congratulating him on his election success. The call was made possible by a Bush-era politician who was probably hoping to make a quick buck trading off his connections as a Washington Insider and lots of pro-Taiwan lobbying. Why is this call such a big breach of diplomatic protocol? The roots of this particular issue date back to 1949 when Chiang Kai-shek’s Republic of China (ROC) was routed by Mao Zedong and fled to Taiwan. From 1949 to 1979, the U.S. recognised the ROC in Taiwan as China’s rightful government and so did the UN. In 1971, the UN broke rank and changed to recognising the People’s Republic of China (Mao’s China) as the legitimate government. In 1979, The U.S. followed suit by establishing diplomatic relation with Mao’s China and adopted the official position that “USA acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.” Despite the statement, the U.S. continues to maintain a quasi-semi official relationship with Taiwan, as Taiwan is a prominent buyer of U.S. weaponry and agriculture products. Most importantly her location offers the U.S. a forward base to “keep Red China in tow”.
Who am I talking to? Tsai Ing-wen? Tsai who? Taiwan? Where is that?
Though this complicated relationship has experienced the occasional upset, the general goal of all three has been to maintain the fragile status quo. After all, China is the largest holder of US bonds, responsible for buying 26% of all Boeing’s plane, 22% of US cotton and 56% of America’s soya, so they are a big customer that no U.S. president wanted to upset. But by speaking to Tsai, Trump threatens to upset the delicate balance. Reaction to the call was immediate. To cool things down, Obama’s White House issued a statement reaffirming the 1979 one China principle declaration sensing the potential upset that this call could make.
One thing rarely mentioned in the news of this phone call is that while Trump and Tsai were talking, Obama as the last act of his Presidency is pushing an act through congress that allows direct contact between American and Taiwanese military. This is worrying as Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party is known for their Pro Independence stance for Taiwan. By talking to Tsai, is Trump signalling a positive endorsement towards supporting the Independence of Taiwan? Knowing that this is China’s red line, is Trump risking hostilities with China who have often stated that the succession of Taiwan from China could lead to war?
President Tsai Ing-Wen, the leader of Taiwan stands before her Party’s logo. By featuring Taiwan Island without mainland China is clearly a symbol of her belief in Taiwanese independence, despite China’s threats.
Does Trump’s phone call signal a shift in US policy that has maintained peace for nearly 40 years? Any change of policy without any well thought out plan is very dangerous. For those old enough to remember how the Cuban Missile Crisis started, it was a miscalculation by President Kennedy to place nuclear missiles in Europe (Turkey and Italy) that could strike at the heartland of the USSR, which invited a quid-pro-quo retaliation by Nikita Khrushchev by planting Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba. That is how World War Three could have started.
In fact, this call with Tsai was not Trump’s only diplomatic disaster. Trump’s conversation with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has caused severe repercussions in South Asia, as it has been interpreted by India as a signal for Trump’s support of Pakistan over India, opening another can of worms.
At this stage, I would give Trump the benefit of the doubt as being a President-in-training, out of his depth and surrounded by people who should have given better advice to their soon to be President. It’s difficult to predict what Trump will do next, but what we can be sure of so far is that Trump is totally unpredictable.
For more about modern China’s place in the world, check out Benjamin Lai’s latest book, The Dragon’s Teeth: The Chinese People’s Liberation Army—Its History, Traditions, and Air Sea and Land Capability in the 21st Century.
Published by Casemate Books, The Dragon’s Teeth is available from: http://www.casematepublishing.co.uk/index.php/the-dragon-039-s-teeth.html
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