Benjamin Lai is an expert on modern Chinese military and the author of The Dragon’s Teeth. Here, he explains why the Chinese government probably favoured a Trump win.
The election of Trump was a shock to many after the vast majority of political pundits and pollsters predicted a Clinton victory. So terrified of Trump, many Americans cried after the result as if it was the end of the world, with some even threatening to leave America altogether. The renowned British turned American historian Simon Schama even compares Donald Trump’s election win with the rise of Hitler. But as the west struggles to accept this new president, there has been comparatively little insight into what China might think. A world superpower in waiting, China and Trump’s relationship will be very important in the next four years.
President Trump, for many Chinese, Trump is not a threat.
For all that Trump has said about China, of how they’re stealing American jobs and so on, it is highly likely that is just election rhetoric. Woodward Wilson, FDR and Lyndon Johnson were all re-elected on an “anti-war” platform, but in every case, the United States went to war in less than 12 months after they took office. Bush Sr. famously said “read my lips, no new taxes” but he raised taxes. Ronald Reagan promises the trade unionist that he will honour collective bargaining, but as President, he was the greatest trade union basher. Election rhetoric is just what it is, a glorified sales pitch with lots of hype. Don’t believe every word you hear. With no previous public service record, we can only guess what President Trump will be like.
AG-600 flying boat – size of a 737 passenger jet with 12 hours endurance with a range of over 5000 Km, allowing her to fly from North China to anywhere in the South China Seas.
However, there are some telltale signs that may give us some clues as to what Trump’s America may become. It is highly likely that America will be more insular and less willing to take up the role of being the World’s Sheriff. While Trump has been vocal calling for tougher trade terms against China, he may find that his hands are tied. US investment in China and China into the US has now reached such a level that any moves against this status-quo may be strongly resisted and even punished. The much hyped Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) is now officially dead, killed off by Obama himself rather than having the indignation of a public crucifixion by Trump. The TPPA was a Pan-Pacific trade deal sold as ‘The Deal’ for free trade in the 21st century, but somehow China being the second biggest economy in the world, and the biggest in Asia, was not invited, which is clearly a great snub. What Obama and Clinton were trying to do is make the smaller Asian countries be less economically dependent on China and instead to trade more with the US. Added to that, it would reduce China’s economic clout and at the same time improve America’s economy. This would be accompanied by a show of military might with American ships patrolling close to the area of contention, sold to the world as “Freedom of Navigation”, in reality, is done to position America as their protector, standing up to Chinese bullies on behalf of small nations in the area. With this comes: a) increased US military presence in the area, b) justification for the continuation of existing US military bases and expansion of more military bases (like in the Philippines) and c) sell weapons, to defend against the aggressive Chinese.
Type-56 Jiangdao class anti-submarine corvette – being launched at a rate of one every six weeks
Maybe smelling a rat, the Philippines, a long-term ally of the United States has just broken rank with the election of a pro-China President, Rodrigo Duterte. Now that the Philippines has broken ranks with America, China has rewarded the Philippines with a massive 24 billion US$ in aid and investment. For the time being, at least in 2017 to 2018, the South China Seas will not be a headline issue as before, much to the delight of China. However gaining from experience of the last few years, knowing that the South China Seas can be an Achilles Heel, China has quietly invested heavily in building up a credible navy. News from Taiwan is saying that China is now launching the brand new Type-56 Jiangdao Class Anti-submarine corvette at a rate of a new vessel every six weeks with the aim of building a fleet of 60 such vessels. Furthermore, China has showcased the world’s largest amphibious plane the AG-600, the size of a 737 jet, in the recent Airshow in Zhuhai. The potential of such a plane in reinforcing China’s claim to the South China Sea is obvious.
While many in the liberal West see Trump as a disaster, the Chinese Government has been quiet throughout the election campaign, preferring to adopt a “wait and see” attitude, but on Chinese social media, some commentators see a Trump Presidency as a positive thing for China due to its potential insularity, giving China the time and room to grow into an industrialised nation.
For more about the South China Sea dispute, check out Benjamin Lai’s latest book, The Dragon’s Teeth: The Chinese People’s Liberation Army—Its History, Traditions, and Air Sea and Land Capability in the 21st Century
Published by Casemate Books, The Dragon’s Teeth is available from: http://www.casematepublishing.co.uk/index.php/the-dragon-039-s-teeth.html
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